Sunday, May 12, 2013

An article that has the welcome aroma of authentic journalism


I am amazed that Washington Post actually has a bona fide reporter on their staff !!  Will wonders never cease!  It's a three-page write up but worth your time.

Liz Sly writes  with contributions from  Suzan Haidamous and Ahmed Ramadan in Beirut
Forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad  are beginning to turn the tide of the country’s war, bolstered by a new strategy, the support of Iran and Russia and the assistance of fighters with Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement.

A series of modest, scattered gains by government forces in recent weeks has produced no decisive breakthrough. But the advances have been made in strategically important locations and point to a new level of direction and energy previously unseen in the army’s performance, military analysts, rebels and Syrians close to the government say.

A war that has seesawed wildly over the past year and is now threatening to draw in other regional players is likely to pivot unpredictably many more times before it is over. Events such as the bombings that killed at least 40 people in a Turkish border town Saturday, Israel’s airstrikes against Damascus last weekend and decisions by outside powers to arm the rebels are among the many variables that could tilt the balance again.

But analysts say there is little doubt that the pendulum is now swinging in favor of Assad, potentially putting him in a strong position to set terms if the negotiations with the opposition that the Obama administration and Russia last week agreed to sponsor eventually take place.

“If things continue as they are, the government will certainly be the party that has the major advantage” in any talks, said Charles Lister of the London-based IHS Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Center. “If we press pause on where we are today, it is clear the insurgency does not pose an existential threat to the regime.”

Pro-Assad analysts credit a major restructuring of government forces that has better equipped them to confront the insurgency. The ranks of the conventional Syrian army — weary, depleted and demoralized by defections, casualties and more than a year of continuous fighting — are being swelled by the deployment of some 60,000 militia irregulars trained at least in part by Hezbollah and Iranian advisers..........

Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah has portrayed the movement’s involvement in the Syrian war as a struggle for the survival of Shiites regionwide against a rising tide of Sunni extremism. Israel’s airstrikes have further helped the movement justify its participation, said Mohammed Obeid, a Lebanese political analyst with close ties to Hezbollah, by enabling its leadership to also cast the fight in Syria as an extension of its war against Israel.

“After the Israeli strikes, Hezbollah can say openly that it is fighting Israel in Syria,” he said. “These strikes served Hezbollah and strengthened its logic.”.........

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